2024 in Review
Reviewing the key themes from 2024 through C-suite quotes
Summary: The stock market soared in 2024, but throughout the year, markets waited for signs that the Fed would declare victory over inflation and begin to lower interest rates. Early in the year markets were forecasting as many as seven rate cuts, but stickier-than-expected inflation kept the Fed on hold until the final months of the year.
The Fed was ultimately convinced to lower rates by softening economic data in the late spring and summer, which demonstrated to the Fed that the risks between inflation and unemployment had become more “balanced.” Some of this sentiment was likely influenced by the 2024 Presidential election. Half of Americans felt like the country was in a recession despite relatively strong economic performance.
The Fed didn’t want to be behind the curve on a recession though, and in August, Jerome Powell signalled that the time had come to lower rates. In September the Fed made a “strong move” to decrease rates by 50bps.
The Fed’s move helped to jumpstart confidence in the economy and this process was further bolstered by election results. The end of the election removed a key source of uncertainty for markets. Trump’s election was viewed positively by business leaders, who tended to see a Republican administration as more pro-growth. As a result, confidence showed signs of surging as the year came to a close. Animal spirits appeared to be awakening.
But even though the Fed ended up cutting rates by a full 100 bps, Jerome Powell seemed determined to throw cold water on the fun. At the Fed’s final meeting, the FOMC forecast only a couple of rate cuts in 2025.
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Happy holidays and see you in 2025!
As the year began, most people believed that rate cuts were imminent
"I thought that it's unlikely the Fed would cut rates this year, but inflation has moved down pretty materially quickly, that it's now become more likely. So first of the year, I suspect nothing back out for the year. They could easily move a couple. They could move a couple of times." - Morgan Stanley (MS 0.00%↑) Outgoing CEO James Gorman
Consensus expected a soft landing for the economy
"...it's uncontroversial that the economic outlook has evolved to include a significantly higher probability of a soft landing. That's, I think, the consensus at this point. So whether you believe it or not is a separate issue, but I think that is the consensus...Everyone wants to see a problem. But the reality is we aren’t seeing any yet." - JPMorgan Chase (JPM 0.00%↑) CFO Jeremy Barnum
The consumer was doing fine
"The way we see it, the consumer is fine. All of the relevant metrics are now effectively normalized. And the question really, in light of the fact that cash buffers are now also normal, but that that means that consumers have been spending more than they're taking in, is how that spending behavior adjusts as we go into the new year in a world where their cash buffers are less comfortable than they were." - JPMorgan Chase (JPM 0.00%↑) CFO Jeremy Barnum
The markets were excited about the potential for rate cuts
"As we enter 2024, the potential for rate cuts in the first half of this year has renewed optimism for a soft landing. We are already seeing signs of potential resurgence in strategic activity, which is reflected in our backlog." - Goldman Sachs (GS 0.00%↑) CEO David Solomon
Markets were predicting seven cuts in 2024, but some were skeptical
"The market is clearly running ahead to a position of many cuts. There's no question we've made a lot of progress on inflation. Depending on how the progress moves from here, that will spell the direction of policy. It's hard for me to see the market's view of seven cuts this year. I do think there's a reasonable possibility of some interest rate cuts and some easily, but it's really going to be dependent on what the data says and how the economy transmits." - Goldman Sachs (GS 0.00%↑) CEO David Solomon
The consumer remained resilient
"We are off to a solid start in 2024. Consumer spending remained resilient with first quarter year-over-year payments volume growth at 8%, U.S. payments volume grew 5% year-over-year, and international payments volume grew 11%. Cross-border volume, excluding intra-Europe, rose 16% year-over-year in constant dollars with cross-border travel at 142% of 2019 levels, up from 139% in the fourth quarter... Consumer spend across all segments from low- to high-spend has remained relatively stable. Our data does not indicate any meaningful behavior change across consumer segments." - Visa (V 0.00%↑) CFO Chris Suh
The Fed began to signal that rates were at their peak
"We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle and that if the economy evolves broadly as expected it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year. But the economy has surprised forecasters in many ways since the pandemic, and ongoing progress toward our 2 percent inflation objective is not assured. The economic outlook is uncertain and we remain highly attentive to inflation risks. We are prepared to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for longer if appropriate." - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
But also signaled that cuts may not happen “in the near term”
"Based on the meeting today, I would tell you that I don't think it's likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting to identify March as the time to do that. But that's to be seen. So I wouldn't call—you know when you say—when you ask me about "in the near term," I'm hearing that as March. I would say I don't think that's – that's probably not the most likely case, or what we would call the base case." - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
Companies became excited about rate cuts
"And we hope that by the summer interest rates will go down and that will create another source of oxygen for this possible incoming household. So we feel good about the consumer in the U.S." - PepsiCo (PEP 0.00%↑) CEO of Europe & Sub-Saharan Africa Ramon Laguarta
The economy was doing well overall
"Why do we believe this economy is doing pretty well? We are basically in full employment. Grocery inflation is coming down. So quarter versus quarter the consumer should start to see net disposable income coming up slightly, feel a little bit richer, and feel a little bit like, yes, what I can treat myself and come a little bit more often into the restaurant." - The Wendy's (WEN 0.00%↑) CFO Gunther Plosch
And inflation appeared to have moderated
"Another important fact that I highlight is the inflationary pressures, which are moderating or stabilizing across most of our markets." - Coca-Cola (K 0.00%↑) CEO James Quincey
Recession risk was taken off the table
"Everybody has thought that would have to cause a recession, right? So they always had a mild recession, mild recession and then moving out through the course of '23 from mid-'23, at the end of '23, did early '24. And finally, they took it off the table. And that's really due to the factors that you're all familiar with. The strength in American consumer is still there. The ability for the American consumer to borrow is still there. The activity levels are high." - Bank of America (BAC 0.00%↑) CEO Brian Moynihan
Some worried that the market was overconfident
"70 or 80 percent chance. We'll have a soft landing. I give it half that. We may very well have one, but I think there's also a higher chance in the market. Things have raised me a little bit higher. Another thing I think it's always a mistake to do is look at just the year, all these factors we talk about QT, fiscal spending, deficits, the geopolitics, those things may play out over multiple years, but they will play out and they will have an effect. And we just don't know what they are. So I'm just, my mind, I'm hedging." - JPMorgan (JPM 0.00%↑) CEO Jamie Dimon
But the economy was strong
"We continue to see the consumer as a source of strength in the broader economy these days. The labor markets have been incredibly resilient even in the face of inflation. Debt burdens are kind of near historical lows despite higher interest rates. Home prices are kind of back towards historical highs. And just in general, we feel like the consumer is in pretty good shape relative to sort of prior historical periods." - Capital One Financial Corporation (COF 0.00%↑) Senior Vice President Of Finance Jeff Norris
The strong economy helped keep inflation stickier than expected
"We are seeing inflation come down. We believe that the last 100 basis points or so of inflation will be somewhat stubborn.” - Regions Financial Corporation (RF 0.00%↑) CEO John M. Turner
As such, enthusiasm for lower rates subsided
"There was a bit of enthusiasm in the market that interest rates were going to be moving down a number of times as we went through 2024, some of that enthusiasm has subsided." - Lennar (LEN 0.00%↑) Co-CEO Stuart Miller
The Fed continued to signal that rates were likely at their peak
"We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle and that, if the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year. The economic outlook is uncertain, however, and we remain highly attentive to inflation risks. We are prepared to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for longer, if appropriate. We know that reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could result in a reversal of the progress we have seen on inflation and ultimately require even tighter policy to get inflation back to 2 percent. At the same time, reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.” – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
But growth was slowing
"Total card spending per household rose 0.3% year-over-year (YoY) in March, following the leap-year boosted 2.9% YoY increase in February, according to Bank of America aggregated credit debit card data. The early Easter holiday likely brought some spending from April into March. Controlling for these seasonal impacts, spending fell 0.7% month-over-month. While spending was soft on the month, the solid labor market continues to sustain consumer momentum.” - Bank of America (BAC 0.00%↑)
Some fear began to creep in
"The barrage of bad news, inflation, towards the border, the Red Sea, the election, the Iran bombing for the people of work, the fear of what's coming around the corner impacts the outlook and paraphrasing the characters of Dune, fear is the outlook killer. It erodes confidence." - Snap-on (SNA 0.00%↑) CEO Nick Pinchuk
Investors were losing confidence in rate cuts
"The Fed most recently telegraphed three rate cuts in 2024, but last week's CPI print has lowered market expectations. This will continue to evolve and be highly data-dependent. I'm also mindful that U.S. equity markets are hovering near record levels at a time when we see -- when we continue to see headwinds, including concerns around inflation, the commercial real estate market, and escalating geopolitical tensions around the world." - Goldman Sachs (GS 0.00%↑) CEO David Solomon
Consumers were in pretty darn strong shape
"I think the U.S. consumer remains a source of strength in the economy. The labor market remains strikingly resilient. Rising incomes have kept consumer debt servicing burdens relatively low by historical standards. And when we look at our customers, we see that they have higher bank balances than before the pandemic and this is true across income levels…on the whole, I'd say consumers are in reasonably good shape relative -- pretty darn strong shape relative to historical benchmark." - Capital One Financial (COF 0.00%↑) CEO Richard Fairbank
Strong consumers helped keep inflation sticky, and the Fed was not satisfied
"We have stated that we do not expect that it will be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until we have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%. So far this year, the data have not given us that greater confidence…we're not satisfied with 3% inflation. 3% can't be in a sentence with satisfied…if we were to conclude that policy is not sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation sustainably at 2%, then that would be what it would take for us to want to increase rates. We don't see that. We don't see any evidence for that." - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
People began to come to terms with the idea that rates could be higher for longer
“I think the other uncertainty that is kind of tied to that is just what's going to happen with respect to interest rates…I think, while it may be higher for longer, I don't think that there is a risk associated with rates increasing from here. And I think it's more of the timing of when rates start to come down, which is good. But there is a fair amount of uncertainty that exists out there." - US Bancorp (USB 0.00%↑) Chief Administration Officer Terrance Dolan
Consumers remained resilient
"Looking within our customer base, we can see that consumers remain healthy and resilient." - JPMorgan Chase (JPM 0.00%↑) CEO of Consumer & Community Banking Marianne Lake
But there were also signs of growing pressure
"...the sustained level of elevated prices has had a meaningful impact on budgets and savings for many families. Currently, one in three Americans has maxed out, or is nearing the limit on at least one of their credit cards. For these reasons and more, we remain cautious in our near-term growth outlook. Notably, we expect discretionary trends will continue to remain pressured in the short term, but to normalize over time." - Target (TGT 0.00%↑) EVP & Chief Growth Officer Christina Hennington
Fed policy was basically working as designed
"Fed policy is basically working, I think as designed…It's putting some brakes. There are signs of a slowdown. It's not dramatic, but you can see the economy getting a little bit softer. And I think if you're the Fed, you really have to slay the inflation dragon. The worst thing they can do is take their foot off that brake too fast and inflation doesn't really get subdued and you end up having it come back and then they're a little bit chasing it, which was what happened in the 70s. This won't be anywhere near as pronounced in the 70s, but they have to make sure that doesn't happen." - Goldman Sachs (GS 0.00%↑) President John Waldron
2024 was an election year, and consumer confidence was low despite strong data
"Consumer confidence is pressured despite there's some obvious positives in the economic environment, but there's other concerns and challenges that are putting pressure on consumers. And then we're seeing that show up and just then be more thoughtful and more aware of how they're making choices and spending money. And then you layer in the election environment and other dynamics going on in our culture and society, and the consumer is in a, I guess, I'd say, an uncertain place. And so that certainly influences all of consumer behavior." - Ulta Beauty (ULTA 0.00%↑) CEO David Kimbell
The majority of Americans felt like we were already in a recession
"But, I mean, I was just looking at an article this weekend. More than 50% of American consumers believe that we're in a recession. At some point, it doesn't really matter what the data says at the highest level. It is a question of how secure does the consumer feel. There's less credit. There's much lower savings than even the pre-COVID savings rates we were seeing. And you're starting to see people teeter more into some of that default. So I think you're just continuing to see a consumer that slowly, way more slowly than any of us expected, continues to pull back and make very explicit decisions based on value and perceived value of whatever the items are that they're looking for." - Best Buy (BBY 0.00%↑) CEO Corie Barry
Depending on the perspective, the economy could look half-empty or half-full
"It truly is a moment of the cup half full or the cup half empty, depending on what you want to -- which bit of the world you want to look at...if you're in the lower end of the income spectrum in the U.S., you're under pressure from inflation. You can take one of those -- in baskets where it's looked at the inflation by the basket you buy, depending on which income decile you're in and it's pretty high if you're at the bottom end in the U.S. And you can see that pressure coming through -- saw that pressure coming through in QSR restaurants and a number of areas where footfall or basket size was under pressure and, of course, consequent behaviors looking for affordability." - Coca-Cola (KO 0.00%↑) CEO James Quincey
The Fed also started to see that the risks of inflation and recession were becoming balanced
"I'm not going to be landing on any specific dates here today. Let me also say that we're well aware that if we go too soon, we could undo the good work we've done in bringing down inflation. And if we go too late, we could unnecessarily undermine the recession, the recovery, and the expansion. And, uh, so we're aware that we have two-sided risks now, more so than we did a year ago. That's a big change. I'd say risks are coming much more into balance now." - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
Consumer spending growth was slowing
"We are not seeing the same growth in consumer spending that we had in prior quarters. There was less traffic in the retail venues that we partner with…there are clear signs of a softening labor market and the tightening of the consumer budget." - Citigroup (C 0.00%↑) CFO Mark Mason
Focus began to turn to the election after a crazy couple of weeks in which Trump was nearly assassinated and Biden was replaced by Kamala Harris
"...there is a high level of geopolitical instability. Elections across the globe could have significant implications for forward policy. And inflation is proven to be stickier than many had anticipated." - Goldman Sachs (GS 0.00%↑) CEO David Solomon
People were not in a celebratory mood
"As far as champagne is concerned, I think we have a severe demand issue in champagne. Champagne is quite linked with celebration, happiness, et cetera. Maybe the current global situation, be it geopolitical or macroeconomic doesn't lead people to cheer up and to open bottles of champagne…The performance of Wine & Spirit largely reflects top-line pressure. It's not particularly enjoyable, but it's not particularly surprising either. Wines & Spirits ranks amongst our most cyclical businesses, and we had perhaps forgotten about the existence of economy cycles, courtesy of Central Bank's accommodative policies but history suggests that this will subside." - LVMH (LVMH) CFO Jean-Jacques Guiony
There were reports that consumer weakness was broadening
"Beginning last year, we warned of a more discriminating consumer, particularly among lower-income households. And as this year progressed, those pressures have deepened and broadened. The QSR sector has meaningfully slowed in the majority of our markets and industry traffic has declined in major markets like the U.S., Australia, Canada, and Germany." - McDonald's (MCD 0.00%↑) CEO Christopher J. Kempczinski
"We're seeing lower average selling prices or ASPs right now because customers continue to trade down on price when they can... Consumers being careful with their spend, trading down, looking for lower ASP products, looking for deals...That continued into Q2, and we expect it to continue into Q3. We're seeing signs of it continuing in Q3." - Amazon (AMZN 0.00%↑) CFO Brian T. Olsavsky
The stock market had a sharp decline
"History would suggest short-term fluctuations mean absolutely nothing...the volatility is not going to really impact the consumer in the next short period of time. But if you see it for several months, then I would expect us to see some slowdown in consumer spending...I think that consumer is used to seeing some volatility, and they have some probably built-in gains that they never thought they would have, right...honestly, I'm not looking at a current potential recession or tough market as any basis to slow down." - Simon Property Group (SPG 0.00%↑) CEO David E. Simon
But not much changed in the real economy
"I am certainly not an economist and I've been pretty consistent in my pushback since March of ‘22 that from what we could see commercially we weren't going off a cliff and I continue to feel that way. Again, our canary in the coal mine in this business are cancellations, and we really have not seen any sort of uptick in that degree." - Clear Channel Outdoor (CCO 0.00%↑) Scott Wells
CEOs warned that rates would need to go lower or we could end up in a recession
"They've told people rates probably aren't going to go up, but if they don't start taking them down relatively soon, you could dispirit the American consumer. Once the American consumer really starts going very negative, then it's hard to get them back." — Bank of America (BAC 0.00%↑) CEO Brian Moynihan
The Fed took note
"I’m open to something happening in terms of us moving before the fourth quarter...Now that inflation is coming into range, we have to look at the other side of the mandate, and there, we’ve seen the unemployment rate rise considerably off of its lows...We’ve been saying for a long time that we want to see the numbers come in to give us more confidence that we’re sustainably on the path to 2 percent and I have to say, the numbers that have come in in the last several months have given me greater confidence that we’re sustainably on that path." — Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic
At Jackson Hole, Jerome Powell signalled that the time had come to cut rates
"The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability. With an appropriate dialing back of policy restraint, there is good reason to think that the economy will get back to 2 percent inflation while maintaining a strong labor market." - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
Lower-income consumers were in particularly dire straits
"Our core customer who contributes approximately 60% of our overall sales comes predominantly from households earning less than $35,000 annually. Inflation has continued to negatively impact these households, with more than 60% claiming they have had to sacrifice on purchasing basic necessities due to the higher cost of those items." - Dollar General (DG 0.00%↑) CEO Todd Vasos
The Fed was ready to ride to the rescue. They didn’t want to be behind the curve
"It’s very clear what’s happening in the economy. Inflation is way down. We’re not overheating. And there are definite warning signs of things over-cooling...Do you want to be the most restrictive you’ve been in the entire rate-tightening cycle at a moment when there’s a pretty clear path to 2% inflation and the unemployment rate is above?" - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee
Markets began to expect the Fed to cut by 50 bps
"And I was on CNBC last week and someone said, well, what's your view on rate cuts? And I made the point that if you are going to cut 75 basis points between now and year-end, you're much better off cutting 50 basis points now because you'll spur more economic activity next year because corporations are making decisions about next year now. And if they know they have 50 basis points on a huge balance sheet of debt, they could do more hiring, they could do more investing even having that information." – SoFi Technologies (SOFI 0.00%↑) CEO Anthony Noto
The Fed obliged
"We don’t think we’re behind. We do not think we’re—we think this is timely. But I think you can take this as a sign of our commitment not to get behind. So it’s a strong move." – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
CEOs expected lower rates to help boost confidence
"With the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 50 basis points last week, we believe this will further benefit consumer confidence and affordability... Ultimately, lower mortgage rates do help to stimulate demand, and we saw evidence of this in August, with net orders increasing sequentially week by week, as the month progressed...As rates moderated in August, our net orders improved." - KB Home (KBH 0.00%↑) COO Robert McGibney
But the Fed was not in a hurry to cut rates
"But the sense of the committee, this is not a committee that feels like it's in a hurry to cut rates quickly. It's a committee that wants to be guided, ultimately we will be guided, by the incoming data and if the economy slows more than we expect, then we can cut faster, if it slows less than we expect, we can cut slower, and that's really what's going to decide it.” - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
Fed policy impacts the economy with a lag
"The short answer...is not much has changed since in the last three weeks." – Wells Fargo (WFC 0.00%↑) CFO Mike Santomassimo
Optimism was rebounding though
"Needless to say, the markets are improving. You're seeing momentum in the economy. Uncertainties are lifting. And retail clients are engaged both from seeking advice but also coming to the platform as new clients, which I think is a particularly good trend to watch." – Morgan Stanley (MS 0.00%↑) CFO Sharon Yeshaya
"Now while growth [years] are not slower than last year, global economic performance continues to be surprisingly resilient. Whatever you want to call the U.S. landing, the sentiment around it is more optimistic, supported by the recent positive payrolls report, and we see a healthy yet more discerning U.S. consumer and the U.S. corporate sector on its front foot." – Citigroup (C 0.00%↑) CEO Jane Nind Fraser
It began to look like the fun part of the cycle was on the way
"We also stated our belief that an easing of the cost of capital would be very positive for Blackstone's asset values and would be a catalyst for transaction activity, including deployment and ultimately, realizations, which in turn fuel fundraising. This is the virtuous cycle that powers our business. We believe we're now advancing towards the stage in the cycle, it is always the most fun." – Blackstone (BX 0.00%↑) CEO Stephen Allen Schwarzman
Companies were enthusiastic about rate cuts
"Since these businesses are interest rate sensitive, the Fed's start of a new monetary easing cycle has recently heightened investor enthusiasm for the real estate services sector. We share the market's enthusiasm and expect to benefit from a capital markets recovery over the next several years." – CBRE Group (CBRE 0.00%↑) CEO Robert E. Sulentic
"Anecdotally, we believe customer optimism improved in light of the recent reduction in benchmark interest and the expectation the downward rate movements could continue in the near term." – Zions Bancorp (ZION 0.00%↑) CEO Harris Henry Simmons
And election uncertainty would soon be resolved
"There's clearly election anxiety, if you will." – Robert Half (RHI 0.00%↑) Vice Chairman, President & CFO M. Keith Waddell
Election uncertainty created an overhang on the economy
"An extremely close U.S. November election with polarized outcomes also isn't helping in the near-term.” – IDEX (IEX 0.00%↑) CEO Eric Ashleman
“Consumers remain trepidatious in their spending patterns and are demonstrating more price elasticity than we saw in the early months of the year... we were seeing a broader pullback by shoppers in the lead up to the election.” – Wayfair (W 0.00%↑) CEO Niraj Shah
On November 5 the election was finally over. Trump won
"We overcame obstacles that nobody thought possible and it is now clear that we've achieved the most incredible political thing, look what happened, is this crazy? But it's a political victory that our country has never seen before, nothing like this. I want to thank the American people for the extraordinary honor of being elected your 47th president and your 45th president. And every citizen, I will fight for you, for your family, and your future, every single day I will be fighting for you with every breath in my body, I will not rest until we have delivered the strong, safe, and prosperous America that our children deserve and that you deserve. This will truly be the golden age of America, that's what we have to have." — President-Elect Donald Trump
Getting through the election was a relief
"There's some of this that I think probably you're hearing from most companies at this conference that just getting through the election regardless of the outcome is a relief to everybody. In general, though, given our exposure, anything that's going to be done to encourage manufacturing in North America here in the U.S. is going to be likely a tailwind for us." - MSC Industrial Direct (MSM 0.00%↑) President, CEO & Director Erik David Gershwind
And Trump was expected to be pro-growth
"The Republican focus is likely on less regulation, keeping taxes low, hopefully getting inflation under control, where there's still some work to be done there. I think it's good for business, and that's good for Equifax. There'll obviously be a likely regime change at the CFPB... likely a bit different tone perhaps than it has been the last 4 years with Director Chopra. So we think that's a positive for us also." - Equifax (EFX 0.00%↑) CEO Mark Begor
Companies became excited about a business-friendly administration
"President Trump is going to be more business-friendly...if I think about what happened on election day, holding aside sort of maybe the social context of it, but actually how do you think about it as CEO of a 125,000-personal organization? Effectively you're entering a period that is going to have a more business-friendly tone to it. It's a good thing." - Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO 0.00%↑) Chairman, President & CEO Marc Casper
"I think President Trump and whoever his men and women are supporting them are the most likely people to kind of clean things up, streamline them...I think that could be a huge positive for the industry, reduce the cost of the government, accelerate." - L3Harris Technologies (LHX 0.00%↑) Chair & CEO Christopher Kubasik
Confidence rebounded
"Obviously, we help that lower-end consumer, and I hear what you're saying..from a consumer confidence index standpoint, they're maybe feeling a little bit more confident about the future.” - America’s CarMart (CRMT 0.00%↑) President Douglas Campbell
“...you're already seeing some of the upticks on surveys with industrial PMI moving higher. Consumer confidence sitting at 7-month highs. Consumer confidence for durable goods at 4-month highs. So I definitely agree with you that there is a sense of optimism.” - RXO (RXO 0.00%↑) CEO Drew Wilkerson
Animal spirits were awakening
"I think our clients are feeling optimistic. Like you can tell that the animal spirits have returned a little bit here. Like I think an element which is a collective sigh of relief on tax policy...there's a lot of excitement about the opportunities that could open up. But that sentiment needs to then translate into actual sort of constructive activity." — Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB 0.00%↑) President Timothy N. Spence
"It's definitely awakened the animal spirits, I think it's fair to say...the level of discussion and the level of pipeline building has clearly increased. So, the expectation is that there will be less regulation, it will be easier to get deals done, and hopefully, financing remains relatively cheap compared to the past couple of years. So, I think people are looking forward to a very active year next year." — Deutsche Bank (DB 0.00%↑) Head of M&A Alison Harding-Jones
The year ended on a high note
"First of all, it looks like the consumer is starting to feel a little bit better than they were in prior quarters. I'll give you a little bit of our research. Our external research shows that consumer sentiment is trending positive. And there's a little bit of a feeling of optimism out there by the belief the labor market will improve...In contrast to previous quarters, we're seeing growth in visits from our guests making between $50,000 and $100,000 a year, which is really more of our casual dining brands." — Darden Restaurants (DRI 0.00%↑) CEO Ricardo Cardenas
But Jerome Powell seemed determined to play Grinch
"The median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 3.9% at the end of next year and 3.4% at the end of 2026. These median projections are somewhat higher than in September, consistent with the firmer inflation projection." — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
The Fed is guiding to fewer rate cuts in 2025
"At 4.3% and change, we believe policy is still meaningfully restrictive. But as for additional cuts we’re going to be looking for further progress on inflation as well as continued strength in the labor market, and as long as the economy and the labor market are solid we can be cautious about—as we consider further cuts and all of that is reflected, to your question, in the December SEP which shows a median forecast of down two cuts next year compared to four in September." — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell