Pretty Stable

The US economy is in decent shape

Summary: The US economy is in decent shape with resilient consumer spending and stable growth. The presidential election will finally wrap up in a little over a week and that will be one source of anxiety that will be resolved for markets.

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Macro

Consumers are pretty resilient
"I think we are seeing that the global consumer is pretty resilient...the National Retail Federation in the US came out with its outlook for the holidays, and they are saying 2.5% to 3.5% growth in terms of holiday spend. I would say that's pretty in line with what we are expecting for our categories." – Logitech International S.A. (LOGI 0.00%↑) CEO Hanneke Faber 

"According to a variety of external macro indicators, overall consumer spending growth is slower than last year, but appears stable at a comfortable pace." – Fiserv (FI 0.00%↑) CFO Bob Hau 

Household finances are healthy
"Household finances remain healthy due to low unemployment and some real wage growth, although lower-income consumers face affordability pressures from higher shelter, transportation, and other expenses." – TransUnion (TRU 0.00%↑) CEO Christopher A. Cartwright 

Consumer delinquencies have improved
"Consumer delinquencies have improved for personal loans and appear to be stabilizing for credit cards and auto loans. In mortgages, delinquencies have risen but remain below historical averages." – TransUnion (TRU 0.00%↑) CEO Christopher A. Cartwright 

There’s still pent-up demand for talent
"Job openings remain significantly above historical averages, indicating substantial pent-up demand for talent. While the tightness of the labor supply has eased somewhat, the unemployment rate in the United States for those with a college degree is still only 2.3%, with rates for many in-demand accounting, finance, and IT positions even lower." – Robert Half (RHI 0.00%↑) CFO M. Keith Waddell

Companies are enthusiastic about rate cuts
"Since these businesses are interest rate sensitive, the Fed's start of a new monetary easing cycle has recently heightened investor enthusiasm for the real estate services sector. We share the market's enthusiasm and expect to benefit from a capital markets recovery over the next several years." – CBRE Group (CBRE 0.00%↑) CEO Robert E. Sulentic

"Anecdotally, we believe customer optimism improved in light of the recent reduction in benchmark interest and the expectation the downward rate movements could continue in the near term." – Zions Bancorp (ZION 0.00%↑) CEO Harris Henry Simmons 

But more cuts are needed
"The Federal Reserve’s recent actions are a good start, but it will likely take more time, more rate relief, and looser lending conditions before we start to see the flow-through effect in the construction, industrial, and consumer durables market that are so impactful to steel demand." – Nucor (NUE 0.00%↑) CEO Leon Topalian

Interest rates may not fall as quickly as expected
"While inflation may be coming down, we don't think it is going to fall off a cliff. And our expectation is that short-term rates will come down, but they are perhaps not going to come down as quickly or as aggressively as some have suggested." – W R Berkley (WRB 0.00%↑) CEO William Robert Berkley 

The US government will continue running multi-trillion dollar deficits
"In addition to that, regardless of who you expect will be in the White House, there is no doubt if you take them at their word...they are looking to grow the deficit by what would be measured by the trillions of dollars. So with that as a reality, from our perspective, it is inevitable that the federal government...will be growing its deficit, and there is a real question about supply and demand for government debt going forward." – W R Berkley (WRB 0.00%↑) CEO William Robert Berkley

And that could make inflation sticky
"Driven by the huge and unnecessary federal deficits over the last handful of years, $9 trillion-plus. Inflation in many areas remains sticky, stubborn and structural despite what the labor department is saying and reporting. Our cost of capital is also stubbornly high across much of the equity and debt capital markets, again, despite the delayed and rather feeble responses of Fed to date. And Main Street is hurting in the United States, it's pretty clear." – Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE 0.00%↑) Executive Chairman & Founder Joel S. Marcus

Elections are a week away
"There's clearly election anxiety, if you will." – Robert Half (RHI 0.00%↑) Vice Chairman, President & CFO M. Keith Waddell 

"...ongoing uncertainty over the US presidential election and consequences on potential policy changes impacting the economy." – Flexsteel Industries (FLXS 0.00%↑) CEO Derek Schmidt

"I'm tired of hearing this is the biggest election in your lifetime...The reality is over time, it doesn't matter." – BlackRock (BLK 0.00%↑) CEO Larry Fink

International