Confidence High

The consumer is "probably a little better off than everybody thinks"

Summary: Retailers reported last week. According to Williams Sonoma, the consumer is "probably a little better off than everybody thinks." Walmart's results suggested that consumer spending is very healthy as well. The world's most valuable company, NVIDIA, reported earnings last week and showed that data center spend on GPUs continues to show explosive growth.

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Macro

Consumer confidence is relatively high
"I would say the U.S. consumer economy, we obviously have just gotten through Black Friday and Cyber Monday, consumer confidence is relatively high." - Microsoft (MSFT 0.00%↑) EVP & Chief Commercial Officer Judson B. Althoff

“Obviously, we help that lower-end consumer, and I hear what you're saying. Certainly, they have spoken and they want the help. And I think they're -- from a consumer confidence index standpoint, they're maybe feeling a little bit more confident about the future, hopeful” - America’s CarMart (CRMT 0.00%↑) President Douglas Campbell

“...you're already seeing some of the upticks on surveys with industrial PMI moving higher. Consumer confidence sitting at 7-month highs. Consumer confidence for durable goods at 4-month highs. So I definitely agree with you that there is a sense of optimism,” - RXO (RXO 0.00%↑) CEO Drew Wilkerson

Consumer spending is healthy
"...we continue to see healthy consumer spending. So spending remains strong or healthy. At the end of the day, there's positive and negatives across the macro. But as I said, it's -- there are supportive and stable backdrop for the consumer itself." - Mastercard (MA 0.00%↑) EVP of Investor Relations Devin Corr

"...overall drivers are looking pretty healthy. As we sort of click into the holidays, now we have sort of the Thanksgiving weekend, so Thursday through Sunday...several points ahead of where we saw a year ago in terms of growth." - Visa (V 0.00%↑) CFO Chris Suh

Consumer demand is improving post-election and with the holidays
"Our comparable sales declined 2.9% compared to our guidance of down approximately 1%. Our sales performance was impacted by overall softer-than-forecasted customer demand during September and October...In the last few weeks, as the holiday sales begun and the election is behind us, we have seen customer demand increase again." - Best Buy Co. (BBY 0.00%↑) CEO Corie Barry

Markets are expecting another rate cut in December
"Based on the economic data in hand today and forecasts that show that inflation will continue on its downward path to 2 percent over the medium term, at present I lean toward supporting a cut to the policy rate at our December meeting. But that decision will depend on whether data that we will receive before then surprises to the upside and alters my forecast for the path of inflation." - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller

It's possible that the Fed could skip this meeting
"Conversely, based on what we know today, one could argue that there is a case for skipping a rate cut at the next meeting. Monthly readings on inflation have moved up noticeably recently, and we don't know whether this uptick in inflation will persist, or reverse, as we saw a year ago." - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller

"The U.S. economy is in very good shape and there’s no reason for that not to continue ...the downside risks appear to be less in the labor market, growth is definitely stronger than we thought, and inflation has come in a little higher. So the good news is that we can afford to be a little more cautious as we try to find neutral." - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell

Inflation isn't getting out of the Fed's Octagon
"I feel like an MMA fighter who keeps getting inflation in a choke hold, waiting for it to tap out yet it keeps slipping out of my grasp at the last minute. But let me assure you that submission is inevitable—inflation isn't getting out of the octagon." - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller

International