Still Stable
"...no signs of recession in any of our data or indicators."
Summary: Pressure is building on the global economy, but the US macro environment remains stable. People are trying to figure out whether that can continue.
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Macro
Things are moving pretty fast
“2026 has been very eventful. It’s only March, but it feels like it’s already been three years versus just three months into the year.” - Chevron (CVX 0.00%↑) Company Representative Jacob Ramirez
“We are living through a period where things that would’ve defined a decade have become routine: wars with global repercussions, trillion-dollar companies, a fundamental reordering of international trade, and the advent of the most significant technology since, at least, the computer.” - BlackRock (BLK 0.00%↑) CEO Larry Fink
Some people are preparing for a recession
“Because, as you know, in a business like ours, we rise and fall with the state of the economy, and a sort of global recession would be, you know, a pretty ugly situation to be in, even though on a relative basis. In the U.S., we would stand to position ourselves better than most.” - Phillips 66 (PSX 0.00%↑) CFO Kevin Mitchell
But the economy remains stable
“What we’re seeing is a stable macro environment, no signs of recession in any of our data or indicators, nothing that would indicate that we would change what we’re thinking in terms of pace on any of our segments at this point in time.” - Paychex (PAYX 0.00%↑) CEO John Gibson
“Through mid-March, our daily revenue indications from audits, endorsements, and cancellations are still in positive territory, indicating continued solid business activity and no signs of a broad slowdown.” - Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG 0.00%↑) CEO J. Gallagher
“I mean, in terms of the elevated oil prices, it’s really too early for us to see any sort of discernible trend coming out of this heightened environment that we’re in. Demand continues to sort of pace along with sort of steady growth rates consistent. It’s been pretty consistent throughout the quarter. So, really nothing that we can point to that would say the current elevated fuel prices are causing stress with the consumer, although in the long run, we would expect that this could have an impact if the current prices stay elevated.” - Affirm Holdings (AFRM 0.00%↑) CFO Robert O’ Hare
“But in terms of our customer behavior, we’ve seen nothing so far. Maybe a little bit of rerouting of freight. Does that cause any supply chain issues? I don’t believe so, but right now, we don’t see anything.” - Dover Corporation (DOV 0.00%↑) CEO Richard Tobin
“The biggest driver we see in traffic for restaurants is GDP. So if gas prices remain high for a long period of time and make a big impact on GDP, there may be some softness. But in general, we’re not too worried about gas prices, and we’ll be able to react however we need to if they stay really high for a while.” - Darden Restaurants (DRI 0.00%↑) CEO Richard Cardenas
Energy costs are rising across the economy
“Energy products directly represent about 7 percent of total consumer spending, but energy costs are also spread through the economy, including in transportation, manufacturing, and food production. An extended bout of elevated energy prices could put upward price pressure on a variety of other products.” - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson
There is new inflationary pressure
“From the cost side, we saw some early indications, as you’d imagine, anything tied to fuel. So we’ve seen some short-term kind of impacts on shipping costs pretty quickly. They’re in kind of a range that won’t really affect us...I do think there’ll be some impacts on things like plastic costs. We saw some meaningful increases in India fairly quickly. But the reality is that it takes just a bit of time to pass through. And as we faced this in past crises, we’ll be working with our suppliers.” - Samsonite Group S.A. (SMSEY) CEO Kyle Gendreau
“We’re sort of waiting to see how they shake out, but we’re also expecting pressure on fertilizers and petrochems. Both sectors are pretty heavily linked to oil. Petrochems have been under pressure for a while, and obviously fertilizer is a key input to food, so we may see some inflation pressures there.” - Chevron (CVX 0.00%↑) Head of Europe Navitas Assurance Partners Paul Carrington
Inflation could create economic pinch points
“That’s you and I, it’s the individual having to pay more at the pump or behind the meter, but also the industries such as heavy manufacturing and aviation, both of whom face not only higher input prices, but also demand destruction as consumers pull back spending when faced with inflationary pressures too. Those are pinch points, I would say.” - Markel Group (MKL 0.00%↑) Head of Europe Navitas Assurance Partners Paul Carrington
“This conflict is already creating significant constraints on raw material availability with impacts that extend across feedstocks, intermediates, logistics lanes, and energy inputs. We have received over 40 force majeure letters from suppliers in recent weeks, clear evidence that this is a major disruption. Chemical production capacity has decreased significantly, and tanker routes have been disrupted and repositioned.” - H.B. Fuller (FUL 0.00%↑) CEO Celeste Mastin
Will inflation affect the consumer?
“You always have a concern that is it gonna affect the consumer? Is higher prices for fuel, is it higher prices for travel? Is it higher prices on all that change the consumer? If it’s a short-term blip, which We think it is… this should fix itself pretty soon. Not fix itself, but it will come down to a more normal number where the supply and demand curve was.” - Union Pacific (UNP 0.00%↑) CEO Vincenzo Jim Vena
Labor markets are not strong
“On the other hand, our permanent hiring, and that’s basically a global phenomenon at the moment, the labor markets are stuck. So permanent hiring and everything we do for permanent hiring is extremely, extremely down this year.” - Randstad N.V. (RANJY) CFO Jorge Vazquez
Are we headed for stagflation?
“We are entering this stagflation environment.” - Sitka Gold (SITKF) Fund Manager Lin Asset Management Chen Lin
It will be hard for the Fed to justify lower interest rates
“Turning to inflation, progress on disinflation has stalled over the past year, mainly because of tariffs, and inflation remains somewhat elevated relative to our target.” - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson
