The AI Arms Race

"The AI race is winner-take-all and is going to be a whole-of-nation effort."

Summary: Consumers remain resilient and confidence has increased since the election. Tariffs are a concern. But in some ways, all the usual macro headlines feel like they're taking a back seat to what's happening in tech. A global race for AI is heating up.

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Macro

Consumers remain resilient
"I would say that, obviously, that, we're 33 days into the first quarter, in line with our expectations, off to a good start from an overall consumer spending standpoint. Consumer continues to do well and remain resilient." — Fiserv (FI 0.00%↑) CFO Bob Hau

"Right now, U.S. consumers [are] really healthy. They're shopping. They are paying their loans back. The economy is basically fully employed, which is really solid. We're not afraid of higher for longer because we've been able to operate at these rates quite successfully. So everything was good." — Affirm (AFRM 0.00%↑) CEO Max Roth Levchin

Confidence has increased since the election
"One rather general generic post-election observation. We are seeing a tangible increase in business confidence here in the US since the election, the temporary turmoil of transactional tariffs aside. There is a confluence of economic optimism and a cultural awakening with the 'yoke of woke' having been lifted. We believe these trends should lead to less superfluous gratuitous regulation, greater capital formation, increased opportunities for all Americans and more candid, creative, compelling conversations. Hopefully, an era of censorship and self-censorship is receding into the distance." — News (NWSA 0.00%↑) CEO Robert Thomson

"In North America, consumer confidence has improved slightly following the U.S. election, despite continuing concern about the economic outlook." — Mondelez International (MDLZ 0.00%↑) CEO Dirk Van De Put

But tariffs are a top concern
"...tariffs are on everybody's mind. Not having a clear view of what is to come, when and for how long, we've not yet incorporated any new tariffs in our outlook." — Harley-Davidson (HOG 0.00%↑) CEO Jochen Zeitz

"In the US, our largest market, the products which would be impacted by the tariffs would mainly be our tequila portfolio, which given geographic origin requirements must be made in Mexico, and also Canadian whisky." — Diageo Management (DGE)

"There's no question that tariffs at [a] 25% level from Canada, Mexico, if they're protracted, would have a huge impact on our industry, with billions of dollars of industry profits wiped out and [an] adverse effect on US jobs as well as the entire value system in our industry. Tariffs would also mean higher prices for customers." — Ford Motor (F 0.00%↑) CEO Jim Farley

"Like yourselves, U-Haul is watching the tariff proposals. The supply chain, of course, is complex and likely some misery will result." — U-Haul (UHAL 0.00%↑) CEO Edward Shoen

International