The Golden Age

Trump's return has driven optimism and excitement in capital markets

Summary: Donald Trump was inaugurated last week and began his second administration. Trump's return has driven optimism and excitement in capital markets. He inherits a hot economy, which he hopes to make even hotter. Meanwhile, capital spending on AI is booming in all areas related to the technology, including energy.

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Macro

Trump was inaugurated
"The golden age of America begins right now. From this day forward, our country will flourish and be respected again all over the world...The future is ours, and our golden age has just begun." – US President Donald Trump

Companies are excited
"So the larger part of your question, I think as I travel around and talk to our customers and our clients, I think people are feeling really good about a new administration. I think people think that the regulatory environment is going to improve. Specifically, as it relates to our business, the regulatory environment around M&A, as you know, it's been very challenging to get deals approved, and I'm not speaking of the banking sector, I'm speaking of our M&A business. And I think that will -- I think there'll be a pretty significant unlock there." – KeyCorp (KEY 0.00%↑) Chairman & CEO Chris Gorman

"I think the business community as a whole will benefit from a more positive pro-business orientation with the new administration and so I think you'll see more of acquisition and combinations in the business community as a whole...I believe a more constructive dialogue about willingness to do business with less oversight and constraint is probable and we'll just have to see if that develops." – Huntington Bancshares (HBAN 0.00%↑) Chairman, CEO & President Steve Steinour

"The underlying economy is solid and most business owners are more optimistic about 2025 than they were about 2024." – Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB 0.00%↑) President Timothy N. Spence

Markets are risk-on
"Margin balances have been increasing. That's due to the risk-on appetite of our clients, their positions have been more assertive not only by trading stocks on margin but by putting on aggressive positions in the derivatives...for now, we seem to be in risk-on mode because of the change of the administration, for example. So margin balance, all being equal, I think will be maintained at this level or slightly go higher." – Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR 0.00%↑) CEO Milan Galik

Economic activity is increasing
"Customer engagement is improving and we saw a notable increase in activity amongst our larger global customers who often lead in the recovery of demand as we've seen in past cycles. The improvement in decision-making is reflected in our proprietary metrics where proposals increased earlier in the year, lingered for a period of time, and then began converting more meaningfully after the election." – Prologis (PLD 0.00%↑) SVP, Strategic Planning and Analysis Timothy D. Arndt

Consumers remain resilient
"So the U.S. consumer continues to be a source of strength in the overall economy. The labor market remains strong...Incomes are growing steadily in real terms... I think the consumer story is very consistent with what I've been saying for a number of quarters, and it is very solid." – Capital One Financial (COF 0.00%↑) CEO Richard D. Fairbank

Labor markets are tight
"Labor availability is the single biggest concern that we hear from middle market clients more so than inflation or interest rates at this point or even supply chain issues tied to tariffs." – Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB 0.00%↑) President Timothy N. Spence

Inflation is not under complete control
"My personal view is also that inflation isn't necessarily under complete control yet. It's also apparent that if we do have tariff policy, there'll be people kind of buying ahead on that from an inventory perspective." – KeyCorp (KEY 0.00%↑) CEO Chris Gorman

But Trump wants interest rates lower
"And I'm also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil....With oil prices going down, I'll demand that interest rates drop immediately. And likewise, they should be dropping all over the world. Interest rates should follow us." – US President Donald Trump

International