Too Good?

There has been a meaningful shift in CEO confidence

Summary: 2025 is off to a strong start with plenty of optimism, but the course of a year usually does not follow the path of consensus in January.

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Macro

There’s a lot of positivity
"There has been a meaningful shift in CEO confidence, particularly following the results of the U.S. election. Additionally, there is a significant backlog from sponsors and an overall increased appetite for dealmaking supported by an improving regulatory backdrop. The combination of these conditions should spur further activity in 2025." — Goldman Sachs (GS 0.00%↑) Chairman & CEO David Solomon

"Now in terms of sentiment and things of that variety, clearly, there's a lot of positivity. Our client base is excited. I think there's a lot of momentum clearly in our pipelines that we can see has not yet translated into elevated loan growth at this point." — US Bancorp (USB 0.00%↑) Senior Executive VP & Head of Finance John C. Stern

The US economy is resilient
"The U.S. economy has been resilient. Unemployment remains relatively low, and consumer spending stayed healthy, including during the holiday season. Businesses are more optimistic about the economy, and they are encouraged by expectations for a more pro-growth agenda and improved collaboration between government and business." — JPMorgan Chase (JPM 0.00%↑) CEO Jamie Dimon

"I would say, at the moment, the environment is quite constructive. The economy in the U.S. is quite constructive still." — Goldman Sachs (GS 0.00%↑) Chairman & CEO David Solomon

"More broadly, the U.S. economy has performed very well and remains strong and lower inflation and unemployment position the economy well into 2025." — Wells Fargo (WFC 0.00%↑) CEO Charlie Scharf

Is it in too good a shape?
"The economy is in very good shape. That being said, is it in too good a shape? Are we going to see elevated inflationary pressures? We’ll know by March." — BlackRock (BLK 0.00%↑) CEO Larry Fink

Inflation might persist for a while
"Two significant risks remain. Ongoing and future spending requirements will likely be inflationary, and therefore, inflation may persist for some time. Additionally, geopolitical conditions remain the most dangerous and complicated since World War II." — JPMorgan Chase (JPM 0.00%↑) CEO Jamie Dimon

The Fed is more hawkish now than 3 months ago
"In the fourth quarter, the Federal Reserve cut overnight interest rates by an additional 50 basis points; however, the Federal Reserve’s 2025 outlook indicates a more hawkish stance compared to three months ago." — Unity Bancorp (UNTY 0.00%↑) CEO James Hughes

International